Panama 2027: the investor’s dashboard

The agreement is the useful part. Three institutions with different methods land within half a point of each other for 2027, all above the 2.5% ECLAC expects for Latin America as a whole. The forecasts imply a slowdown from the 5.5% of the first half of 2026 (6.4% in the second quarter alone), not a reversal.

Two cautions. Forecasts moved a lot in 2026: the IMF was at 3.8% in April and is now at 5.0%, and the Infobae article of October 7 still quoted the older number. And the World Bank and ECLAC both name El Niño, through water for the Canal, as a risk for 2027. GDP growth is also not property demand: the next charts show why.

Public works are the part of the outlook that is already written into law. Of the $35.1 billion budget, 36.6% is investment. The July proposal described more than $7 billion for physical works and about $5.5 billion for financial investment, and projected $3,327 million in transfers from the Canal.

A budget is permission to spend, not spending. Execution is what reaches contractors, jobs and neighbourhoods, and the same budget counts on $6,355 million of new borrowing (July proposal). For a property buyer the practical question is local: which specific works are funded near the building you are looking at, and are they under contract.

This is the gap between the economy and the housing market. Banks are liquid (deposits +6.8%) and lending more, but the growth is in the public sector and consumer credit. New lending to the private sector rose 3.3% in January–September; the stock of home mortgages did not grow. See Chart of the Week #5.

For 2027 this is the single most useful series to watch. If the mortgage balance turns positive for several months in a row, local demand is returning. Until it does, the buyers with the most room to negotiate are those who do not depend on a local mortgage. Foreign buyers can apply, with conditions: see mortgages for foreigners.

The market that weakened is the one that needs a local mortgage. Above $120,000 the fall was 6.2%. The same presentation reported sales to foreign buyers of $712 million (+17.7%) on a basis the coverage does not define, so we do not net it against the total.

Going into 2027: a market that is soft at the bottom and firmer above it rewards patience more than speed. There is no reported shortage that should hurry a buyer in the segments we cover.

Permits are a promise of future supply. Residential permits rose 14.1% while residential sales fell 13%, so more product is being approved than the market absorbed in the same months. By Brax’s estimate about 69% of the increase in permit value came from outside the Panama district, which holds 73.3% of the total.

For 2027 that means two things: new supply keeps arriving, and it arrives increasingly to the west. Neither is a reason to expect prices to fall or rise by itself; it is a reason to check how many comparable units are for sale around any building you consider.

The price on a listing is an opening position. In Punta Pacífica the median asking price was 22% above the median closing price, with about 42 months of inventory at the current pace of resales. In Santa María the gap was 7%.

These are resale medians, not a discount you can demand on a specific unit. New-build pricing is a separate matter: see new-build vs resale per m². Brax is paid by developers on new-build units, so we have an interest in that comparison; read it with that in mind.

A yield quoted from a listing overstates income before a single cost is counted. The figures to underwrite in these three areas are roughly 6.5% to 8.1% gross, and net will be lower. A worked example for one area: from 9.4% gross to what you keep.

Short-term rental income follows different rules, and in Panama City the 45-day rule and each building’s permit decide whether it is allowed at all. Ask for the permit in writing. Tourism is a tailwind (a record 1.75 million visitors in the first half of 2026, +17.4%, per the tourism authority as reported by La Estrella), but visitors are not the same thing as occupancy in your unit.

The largest risk in the data is not the market; it is the paperwork. Delivery date, penalties, deposit refund terms and what the seller may change after you sign are decided in the contract, and a lawyer you chose should read it. More in presale deposit risk.

The residency rules are part of the same paperwork. Executive Decree No. 17, in force since September 16, 2026, sets $300,000 for new first-sale property and $500,000 for resale under the Qualified Investor route. Confirm your case with an immigration lawyer: what the decree says.

Three scenarios for 2027

Scenarios with triggers, not forecasts. We do not assign probabilities and nothing here predicts prices.

What to watch

• The Superintendencia de Bancos monthly report: residential mortgage balance and new private-sector lending.
• INEC’s third-quarter GDP figure, to see whether the 5.5% pace of the first half held.
• The next Acobir or Indesa sales cut by price segment.
• Execution of the $12.8 billion investment budget, work by work.
• For earlier Qualified Investor applications: the transition window of six months from September 16, 2026, in Decree 17.
• Updated lakilé reports for the neighbourhood you care about: closing prices and months of inventory.

Questions to ask, by type of buyer

• Buying for income. What does this unit yield at signed rents, after fees, management and one empty month? Is short-term rental permitted in this building, in writing?
• Buying for residency. Is this a new first-sale unit ($300,000) or a resale ($500,000) under Decree 17, and has an immigration lawyer confirmed it?
• Buying to live in. What did comparable units actually close at per m², and how many are for sale in the building and the street?
• Everyone. What does the contract say about delivery date, penalties, refunds and changes? Who reviewed it for you?

All charts in the series: Brax Chart of the Week. Questions about a specific unit? Jacky, from the Brax team, answers on WhatsApp: +507 6776-4203.

Common questions