Where sales fell
Panama’s residential sales were $695M in the first half of 2026, 13% below the same period of 2025, according to Acobir figures presented by Indesa. Homes up to $120,000 fell 28.3%; pricier homes fell 6.2%. A Brax calculation from those percentages suggests the entry segment was roughly three in ten dollars of 2025 sales but about two-thirds of the decline. Sales to foreign buyers were reported separately, at $712M (+17.7%), on a basis the coverage does not define.
Homes up to $120,000 fell 28.3% in the first half of 2026, more than four times the 6.2% drop above that price.
Change in sales by segment, first half 2026 vs first half 2025 · % · Panama
| Segment | Change in sales, H1 2026 vs H1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Homes up to $120,000 | −28.3% |
| Commercial sales | −26.6% |
| All residential | −13.0% |
| Homes above $120,000 | −6.2% |
Source: Acobir, with figures presented by Indesa, as reported by TVN, 20 October 2026, La Estrella de Panamá, 21 October 2026 and Infobae, 21 October 2026. Residential total $695M; commercial $50.5M. The price line is as reported: homes “up to $120,000” and “higher-priced properties”.
Image description: horizontal bars of the change in sales, percent, first half 2026 vs first half 2025. Homes up to $120,000 −28.3%, highlighted; commercial sales −26.6%; all residential −13.0%; homes above $120,000 −6.2%.
What happened
At a conversation organised by Acobir, Indesa presented the sector’s first-half numbers, which TVN, La Estrella de Panamá and Infobae reported on 20–21 October. Residential sales were $695M, 13% lower than January–June 2025. Homes up to $120,000 fell 28.3%; higher-priced properties fell 6.2%. Commercial sales were $50.5M, down 26.6%. On the supply side, approved construction permits reached $597.6M and residential permits rose 14.1%, and the projection shared at the event was sector growth of 4% to 5% for 2026.
Thanks to Acobir and Indesa for sharing the figures and to the three outlets for putting them in plain language. The coverage does not publish the underlying tables, so what follows works from the percentages as reported.
By Brax’s estimate, the entry segment was about 31% of 2025 sales but about 67% of the dollar decline.
Share of first-half 2025 residential sales and share of the decline to first-half 2026, by price segment · % · Brax calculation
| Segment | Share, % |
|---|---|
| Up to $120k · share of sales | 31% |
| Up to $120k · share of drop | 67% |
| Above $120k · share of sales | 69% |
| Above $120k · share of drop | 33% |
Source: Brax calculation from the percentages reported by TVN and La Estrella. If x is the entry segment’s share of 2025 sales, then −28.3x − 6.2(1 − x) = −13, so x ≈ 31%. That implies 2025 sales of about $799M, a decline of about $104M, of which about $70M is in homes up to $120,000. The result is sensitive to rounding (the reported 13% could be 12.5–13.5%) and assumes the two segments make up all residential sales.
Image description: four horizontal bars, percent. Homes up to $120,000: 31% of first-half 2025 sales and 67% of the decline (highlighted). Homes above $120,000: 69% of sales and 33% of the decline.
Why it matters: the weakness is at the bottom of the market
The reported pattern is a market that is soft for buyers who depend on local financing and firm at higher price points. That fits what we saw in the bank data: the residential mortgage balance was flat, and new mortgage lending was down (see Chart of the Week #5). It is a consistent picture, not proof of cause: the coverage does not say why entry-level sales fell.
What about foreign buyers? The same presentation reports sales to foreign buyers of $712M, up 17.7%, with Colombia and the United States among the main origins and growing interest from Chinese buyers. That figure cannot be compared with the $695M: it is larger than total residential sales, so it is measured on a different basis that the coverage does not define. A 2023 La Prensa article described a foreign-buyer series for Panama City units above $120,000; we could not confirm it is the same one. We therefore show it here, but do not net it against the residential total.
A disclosure: Brax is paid by developers on new-build units. The projects we market are priced above the $120,000 line, so this chart is a reading of the market, not of our own sales.
What comes next
Scenario, not forecast: if bank lending for entry-level homes stays flat, sales to local buyers at that price point should keep lagging, and the mix of the market shifts toward cash and foreign buyers. If the credit guarantee scheme mentioned in Chart #5 materialises, the entry segment is where it would show first. The triggers to watch are the next Acobir or Indesa cut for the third quarter and the monthly mortgage-lending figures.
For the credit side of the story, see Chart of the Week #5 and Panama’s mortgage squeeze; for prices, new-build vs resale per m².
Common questions
Did home sales fall in Panama in 2026?
According to Acobir figures presented by Indesa, residential sales were $695M in the first half of 2026, 13% below the same period of 2025.
Which price segment fell the most?
Homes up to $120,000 fell 28.3%, against 6.2% for higher-priced properties, per the same figures. Commercial sales fell 26.6%.
Are foreign buyers offsetting the decline?
Sales to foreign buyers were reported at $712M, up 17.7%, but the coverage does not define the measure and the figure is larger than total residential sales, so it cannot be netted against the $695M.
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