Permits moved west
Approved construction permits reached $597.6M in the first half of 2026, 20.2% more than a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). The growth was not evenly spread: Arraiján rose 322.6%, while the Panama district, which holds 73.3% of the value, rose 7.6%. A Brax calculation from those figures suggests roughly 69% of the increase came from outside the Panama district, which holds only about 27% of the value.
Permit value rose 322.6% in Arraiján and 7.6% in the Panama district in the first half of 2026; Aguadulce fell 34.4%.
Change in approved construction permit value, first half 2026 vs first half 2025 · % · Panama
| Item | Change in permit value, H1 2026 vs H1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Arraiján district | +322.6% |
| Non-residential | +33.5% |
| All permits | +20.2% |
| Residential | +14.1% |
| Panama district | +7.6% |
| Aguadulce district | −34.4% |
Source: Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas (MEF), Informe de Coyuntura Económica, as reported by La Estrella de Panamá, 6 October 2026. Permit value is the value of approved permits, not of construction completed. Arraiján’s base value is not reported, so a very large percentage may come from a small starting amount.
Image description: horizontal bars of the change in approved permit value, percent, first half 2026 vs first half 2025. Arraiján district +322.6%, highlighted; non-residential +33.5%; all permits +20.2%; residential +14.1%; Panama district +7.6%; Aguadulce district −34.4%.
What happened
The MEF’s Informe de Coyuntura Económica, reported by La Estrella de Panamá on 6 October, puts approved construction permits at $597.6M for January–June 2026, up $100.5M or 20.2% on the same period of 2025. Non-residential permits grew the most (+33.5%); residential permits rose 14.1% and make up about 65% of the total. By district, Arraiján grew 322.6%, the Panama district grew 7.6% while concentrating 73.3% of the investment, and Aguadulce fell 34.4%.
Thanks to the MEF analysts and to La Estrella for publishing the district detail. The article does not give district values in dollars, so the calculation below is approximate.
By Brax’s estimate, about 69% of the permit-value increase came from outside the Panama district, which holds about 27% of the value.
Share of permit value (first half 2026) and share of the increase vs first half 2025, Panama district vs rest of country · % · Brax calculation
| Item | Share, % |
|---|---|
| Panama district · share of value | 73% |
| Panama district · share of increase | 31% |
| Rest of country · share of value | 27% |
| Rest of country · share of increase | 69% |
Source: Brax calculation from the MEF figures reported by La Estrella. Total 2026 value $597.6M and 2025 value $497.1M. The Panama district’s 73.3% share gives about $438M in 2026 and, at +7.6%, about $407M in 2025, an increase of about $31M, or 31% of the $100.5M. The rest of the country rose from about $90M to about $160M, roughly +77%. The result is approximate because of rounding in the reported shares.
Image description: four horizontal bars, percent. Panama district: 73% of permit value and 31% of the increase. Rest of country: 27% of permit value and 69% of the increase (highlighted).
Why it matters: the supply is moving away from where it has always been
Approved permits are an early indicator of where developers plan to build. A 20% rise overall hides a shift: most of the growth is outside the Panama district, led by Arraiján in Panamá Oeste. For buyers, that suggests new supply, and therefore competition on price, is arriving first in the west, not in the neighborhoods that dominate international marketing.
It also sits beside a soft sales picture. In the same half, residential sales fell 13% and homes up to $120,000 fell 28.3% (see Chart of the Week #6). Permits are plans and sales are transactions, so the two do not measure the same thing and different bodies produced them; read together they say that builders are filing more than buyers are closing. That is a pattern to watch, not proof of oversupply.
A disclosure: Brax is paid by developers on new-build units. This chart is about where permits are being filed, not about any project we market.
What comes next
Scenario, not forecast: if permits keep rising faster outside the Panama district and entry-level sales stay soft, expect more new-build inventory in the west to compete for the same local buyers. The triggers to watch are the INEC permit tables for the months after April, the MEF’s next coyuntura report, and whether Arraiján’s permits turn into units delivered and sold.
For sales, see Chart of the Week #6; for cement and permits earlier in the year, Chart of the Week #2.
Common questions
Did construction permits rise in Panama in 2026?
According to the MEF, approved permits reached $597.6M in the first half of 2026, 20.2% more than a year earlier.
Where did permits grow the most?
Arraiján rose 322.6%, while the Panama district, with 73.3% of the value, rose 7.6%; Aguadulce fell 34.4%. Arraiján’s base value is not reported.
Does more permits mean more homes for sale?
Not directly. A permit is an authorization, not a completed project, and the figures are in dollars, not units.
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