Visa certificates up 38%, FDI down 63%
Short answer: Panama's trade ministry (MICI) issued 268 qualified-investor certificates between July 2025 and June 2026, up 38% on a year earlier, backing $113.6 million. The average per certificate was about $424,000, roughly 9% lower than the year before (Brax calculation). In 2025, foreign direct investment fell 63% to $905 million. The two numbers measure different things and should not be read as one story.
A headline about a visa boom is easy to read as "foreign money is flooding in". The official figures say something narrower: more people are buying their way into residency, mostly through property, at tickets that are drifting toward the minimum, while the broader flow of foreign capital shrank. This note sets the numbers side by side and says what each one can and cannot show.
What the MICI numbers say
According to MICI, as reported by La Estrella de Panamá, the ministry issued 268 certificates under the Qualified Investor permanent-residency programme between July 2025 and June 2026, backing $113.6 million of declared investment. The previous twelve months had 193 certificates and $90.1 million. That is 39% more certificates (the paper reports 38%) and about 26% more declared money.
Real estate was 87.3% of certificates, fixed-term deposits 7.5% and securities 5.2%. A year earlier the split was 85.5%, 8.3% and 6.2%. MICI attributes part of the rise to promotion abroad and to a digital application platform that, in its words, doubled the number of certificates issued per month.
The same period: foreign direct investment fell
In the same article, La Estrella recalls its own April 2026 report that foreign direct investment in Panama closed 2025 at $905 million, down 63% from $2,454 million in 2024, according to INEC. For scale only, $113.6 million of declared visa investment is roughly one-eighth of that $905 million. The periods (July to June versus calendar year) and the definitions differ, so this is not a share of anything. It simply shows how small the visa channel is next to total foreign capital.
| Measure | Jul 2024 – Jun 2025 | Jul 2025 – Jun 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualified-investor certificates | 193 | 268 | +38.9% |
| Declared investment ($M) | 90.1 | 113.6 | +26.1% |
| Average per certificate ($K, Brax calculation) | 467 | 424 | -9.2% |
| Real estate share of certificates | 85.5% | 87.3% | +1.8 pts |
| Foreign direct investment (INEC) | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total, $M | 2,454 | 905 | -63.1% |
Why the two numbers are not the same story
A visa certificate records one person or family choosing to buy property or park money to qualify for residency. Foreign direct investment, as INEC reports it, mostly captures companies investing in Panama: ports, banking, logistics, energy, reinvested profits. A drop in the second and a rise in the first can happen in the same year without contradicting each other.
It also means the visa figure should not be quoted as proof of a general investment recovery, and the FDI fall should not be quoted as proof that individual buyers are leaving. Each answers a different question.
The average ticket slipped
Dividing declared investment by certificates gives about $467,000 in the earlier year and about $424,000 in the latest, a drop of 9% (Brax calculation from MICI figures). The figure mixes three routes, so it is not the average price of an apartment. But the direction fits what many brokers report: more buyers cluster near the $300,000 new-build minimum. If that is right, certificate counts can rise while the money per buyer does not.
Decree 17, in force since September 8, 2026, keeps $300,000 for new first-sale properties but asks $500,000 for resale (see our Decree 17 breakdown). The July 2025 to June 2026 data pre-dates it, so it cannot show how the rule changes behaviour. The first quarter that can will be published later.
Who benefits from the "visa boom" story
The ministry has an incentive to show that its programme works, and says so in its own wording. Developers and brokers, Brax included, benefit when residency is part of the sales pitch. Brax is paid by developers on new units, and the $300,000 new-build route favours the type of unit we sell. That is why we show the average-ticket figure and the FDI fall next to the headline instead of leaving them out.
Related: Decree 17 and the visa threshold, The pre-construction clock.
Common questions
How many investor-visa certificates did Panama issue in the latest year?
MICI issued 268 Qualified Investor certificates between July 2025 and June 2026, backing $113.6 million, against 193 certificates and $90.1 million the year before.
Does the rise in certificates mean foreign investment is recovering?
Not by itself. INEC reported foreign direct investment fell 63% in 2025 to $905 million. Visa certificates measure individual buyers qualifying for residency, mostly through property, which is a different channel.
What is the average investment per certificate?
About $424,000 in July 2025 to June 2026, versus about $467,000 the year before (Brax calculation from MICI figures). It mixes real estate, fixed-term deposits and securities, so it is not an average property price.
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