The +38% that isn’t your market
Short answer: The “+38%” headline for Panama home sales comes from Convivienda, the home promoters’ association, and describes homes priced at $40,000 to $60,000, 81% of them sold with preferential-interest mortgages. New-build sales in the city’s investor market are a different series: Panama Equity reports about $196.7M sold in May 2026 (+27.8% in dollars), roughly $317,000 per unit by our calculation.
Numbers about “the Panama market” often describe different markets. This note puts two widely quoted ones side by side, so you can tell which one your purchase belongs to. Nothing here is a forecast or financial advice.
Step 1: find where the +38% comes from
On 9 April, Infobae reported the annual report of Convivienda, the national council of home promoters: 4,020 new homes delivered in 2025 and an expected 5,530 in the coming year, about 38% more. The article’s headline and first paragraph say 2026, while a later line says “next year”, so the exact year of the projection is not clear from the text.
The detail that matters is the price. Those 4,020 homes sold for $40,000 to $60,000, and 81% of them were bought under the preferential-interest program, which is aimed at lower-income buyers. It is a real number about a real market. It is not the market an investor in El Cangrejo, Costa del Este or Santa María is looking at.
Step 2: put it next to the city’s new-build numbers
Panama Equity, a brokerage, publishes a different series for new and under-construction properties in Panama City: 620 sold in May 2026 for about $196.7M, 27.8% more dollars than May 2025, with about 15,499 units available from developers, 11% fewer than a year earlier. Dividing the two figures gives about $317,000 per unit (Brax calculation), five to eight times the price of the Convivienda homes. Note that Panama Equity measures growth in dollars, not units.
| Convivienda (via Infobae) | Panama Equity | |
|---|---|---|
| What it describes | Social housing, preferential-interest mortgages | New and under-construction properties, Panama City |
| Price | $40,000 to $60,000 | About $317,000 average (Brax calculation: $196.7M ÷ 620) |
| Volume | 4,020 delivered in 2025; 5,530 projected | 620 sold in May 2026 |
| Growth quoted | +38% in units (projection) | +27.8% in dollars (May vs May) |
| Inventory signal | Not reported | Developer units available: −11% year on year |
| Source | Convivienda annual report, via Infobae (9 Apr 2026) | Panama Equity (17 Jul 2026, updated 12 Oct) |
Step 3: both numbers are right, for different buyers
Convivienda reports on the homes its member developers build for first-time and lower-income buyers. Panama Equity reports on new and under-construction properties in the city’s investor market. Each does useful work on the part of the market it follows closely, and we are grateful to both for publishing their figures openly. Neither is meant to tell you how a specific unit will resell or rent.
Step 4: three questions for any market headline
1. Which segment: what price range and type (social, mid-market, luxury, resale)? 2. Which measure: units, dollars or listings, and over which period? 3. Which source and period? A +38% in units for $50,000 homes and a +27.8% in dollars for $317,000 units cannot be compared directly.
Panama Equity’s post calls $300,000 to $400,000 the strongest band, linked to the $300,000 investor-visa threshold. Treat band boundaries as indicative until a registry source confirms them.
Step 5: what this changes for a buyer
If you are buying above $300,000, ignore the +38% and look at inventory, signed rents and closing prices building by building, as we do in the price-per-m² index and the gross-to-net walk. Falling developer inventory can mean less choice at the same price, but it does not tell you that a specific building is well priced.
Related: Panama’s 2026 market reset, Panama’s presale market reopened, From 9.4% gross to what you keep.
Questions about a specific unit? Jacky, from the Brax team, answers on WhatsApp: +507 6776-4203. Brax is paid a commission by developers on new-build units.
Common questions
Are Panama home sales up 38% in 2026?
That is a projection by Convivienda for homes priced at $40,000 to $60,000, mostly sold with preferential-interest mortgages. It does not describe the mid- and upper-market new-build segment, and the source article is ambiguous about the year.
What is the average price of new construction sold in Panama City?
Panama Equity reports 620 properties sold in May 2026 for about $196.7M, which works out to about $317,000 per unit (Brax calculation). Treat it as indicative.
Why do Panama real estate statistics disagree?
They measure different segments (social, mid-market, luxury), different units (units or dollars) and different periods. Ask which segment, which measure and which period before comparing.
Get the Brax Chart of the Week
One chart, one finding, every Thursday. Registry numbers, not brochure numbers.