The mortgage squeeze
Short answer: Panama’s banks issued $981 million in new mortgages in January–August 2026, 13% less than in 2025 and the lowest for those months since 2020, while new personal loans hit a record $2.24 billion. The data does not support all three popular explanations at once.
Panama’s banks issued $981 million in new mortgages between January and August 2026, 13% less than in 2025 and the lowest for those months since 2020, while new personal loans reached a record $2.24 billion. Three explanations circulate: buyers don’t qualify, banks aren’t lending, or the numbers are distorted by one bank’s securitization. They can’t all be right. Here is what the data supports, and what it means for a buyer or an investor reselling later.
What happened
According to nexo.la’s analysis of Superintendencia de Bancos data, banks placed $981 million in new mortgage credit from January to August, 13% less than a year earlier and the lowest for those eight months since the pandemic year of 2020. Total new bank credit rose 4% to $17,855 million, but 83% of that rise went to financial companies; without them it grew 0.7%. New personal consumption loans rose 11% to $2,242 million, the highest in the series published since 2012.
The squeeze reaches supply too. New construction credit, which finances the projects that go on sale later, fell 10% to $1,137 million. In August alone, new mortgages fell 24%.
New mortgages and construction credit are falling while personal loans hit a record.
Change in new bank credit by destination, January–August 2026 vs 2025 · Panama · bank licences general
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| New mortgages, Jan–Aug 2026 | $981M (−13%); lowest for those months since 2020 | SBP via nexo.la |
| New construction credit | $1,137M (−10%) | SBP via nexo.la |
| New personal consumption | $2,242M (+11%); series high since 2012 | SBP via nexo.la |
| All new bank credit | $17,855M (+4%); +0.7% excluding financial companies | SBP via nexo.la |
| Consumer loan per $1 of new mortgage | $2.30 in 2026 vs $1.31 in 2019 | nexo.la |
| New mortgages, August only | $115M (−24%) | nexo.la |
| Caja de Ahorros mortgage balance, Jul→Aug | −$362M (−12.9%), coincides with a securitization | SBP via nexo.la |
| System residential mortgage balance, 12 months | −0.17% (≈ +1.6% without the Caja drop, nexo.la calc.) | SBP / nexo.la |
Source: Superintendencia de Bancos de Panamá, new local loans and Informe de Actividad Bancaria, August 2026, as analysed by nexo.la. Disbursements, not balances; subject to revision. The mortgage line does not separate housing from commercial premises.
Image description: diverging horizontal bars of change vs 2025. New mortgages −13% ($981M, highlighted), construction −10% ($1,137M), all new credit +4% ($17,855M), personal consumption +11% ($2,242M).
Three readings that don’t agree
1. “Buyers don’t qualify.” Finance Minister Felipe Chapman said on October 5 that new mortgages are falling because many buyers don’t qualify as home prices rise, not because banks lack liquidity, and that the ministry is preparing an additional guarantee with the IDB, with no amount or date yet (nexo.la). That is the government’s view, and a forecast of “substantially higher” figures by year end is a hope, not data.
2. “Banks are holding back.” Non-preferential mortgage rates have sat near 6.24% for a year while non-preferential credit fell 7.8%, and bank offers for full-price housing run 6.5% to 8% (nexo.la rate survey). If qualification were the whole story, rates would not matter; they do, at the margin.
3. “It’s partly an artifact.” Caja de Ahorros’s mortgage balance dropped $362 million (12.9%) in one month, in the same window as its registered securitization of up to $1.5 billion. Nexo’s calculation is that without that drop the system’s residential mortgage balance would be up about 1.6% instead of down 0.17% (nexo.la); no public source confirms the amount transferred. This affects balances, not the new-loan flow that the 13% measures.
Why it matters: demand has a financing ceiling
The preferential-interest law covers new homes up to $120,000. Above that, a buyer who needs a local mortgage faces the 6.5%–8% band. That is the resale pool for many units: when mortgage-dependent buyers are squeezed, exit liquidity for local-market properties thins, and the asking-to-closing gaps we showed in Chart of the Week #1 have more room to persist. This is an inference, not a measured link.
For a cash or foreign-financed buyer, the squeeze cuts two ways: more negotiating room on units whose natural buyers cannot get a loan, and more risk that a resale takes longer than the brochure assumes. Developers face the same ceiling, plus 10% less construction credit; the cement recovery in Chart of the Week #2 sits alongside Chapman’s remark that construction growth slowed from 6.5% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2 (INEC, via nexo.la).
What to watch next
September data from the Superintendencia (does the 24% August drop persist?), the AbonoPaTi $3,000 opening date, the IDB guarantee details, and the November 16 handover of the preferential-interest regime from the DGI to the MEF.
Related: Chart of the Week #2, Chart of the Week #1 and Before the deposit.
Common questions
Why are new mortgages falling in Panama in 2026?
New mortgage lending was $981M in January–August, 13% less than 2025. The Finance Minister attributes it to buyers not qualifying as housing costs rise; other data show non-preferential rates near 6.5%–8% and a sharp August drop of 24%. No single cause is proven.
What are mortgage rates in Panama in 2026?
Per nexo.la’s June survey of bank tariffs, full-price housing runs roughly 6.5% to 8% depending on the bank, while preferential-interest loans for new homes up to $120,000 start from 0.75% to 3.5% depending on bracket and bank.
Did Caja de Ahorros’s mortgage book collapse?
Its balance fell $362M in August, but the drop coincides with a securitization of up to $1.5B. Nexo estimates that without it the system’s mortgage balance would have risen about 1.6% in twelve months. The amount transferred is not publicly confirmed.
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